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‘Hot’ summer travel market forecast, but UK growth marginal

Growth in UK outbound travel for this summer is lagging behind the other main tourism markets, according to the latest analysis from ForwardKeys.

The group is forecasting a hot summer for travel this year based in the results of analysis of 16 million booking transactions a day.

However, while the UK market is up by just 0.1%, the world’s biggest two markets, Germany and the US, are both up by more than 8%.

Overall bookings for departure in June, July and August are up 6.4% on the same time last year, according to the FowardKeys data.

Other key markets for outbound travel are also outperforming the UK for growth. France is 5.4% ahead, Australia is 6.3% ahead and Canada is 2.6% ahead.

ForwardKeys said there is also very substantial growth in outbound bookings from the so-called BRIC developing countries, with Brazil 40.6% ahead, Russia 31.3% ahead, India 10.7% ahead and China 7.7% ahead.

A regional analysis shows South America is up 20.0% and Eastern Europe 18.2%. They are followed by North America and southeast Asia, ahead by 7.6% and 6.3% respectively.

The UK fares better as a destination, according to ForwardKeys with sterling’s post Brexit referendum collapse seeing it surge by 18% as a destination.

However, in contrast, the US is the only major country where bookings for the summer are behind where they were last year, by 3.5% behind.

All the other major destinations are experiencing strong booking interest. Summer bookings for Italy are 6.8% up, Spain is up 13.0%, France 7.3% and Thailand 3.2%.

The hottest destinations are are Greece which is up 21.8%, Indonesia 17.4%, Russia 16.7%, and Portugal 14.8%.

Olivier Jager, chief executive of ForwardKeys, said: “Except for inbound travel to the US, we are currently looking at a good year for travel, with more people than ever being willing to fly long haul for their summer holidays.

“One needs to take some of the bigger percentage uplifts with a pinch of salt because in the case of markets such as Russia and Brazil, what we are really seeing is a recovery following previous difficult years.

“Nevertheless, bookings for future travel are significantly ahead of where they were last year for the same period.

“As a general rule, the further people fly, the more money they spend during their trip so if things continue as they are, managers of businesses that rely on tourists, such as hotels, restaurants and visitor attractions, should be wearing smiles in September.”

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