The first signs of a slow post-Covid recovery in overseas visits to the UK is being predicted by VisitBritain.
But numbers projected for next year will be less than half of the 40.9 million arrivals in 2019.
The tourist board is forecasting 16.9 million inbound visits in 2021, up 73% on the 9.7 million low recorded this year.
Inbound visitor spending is expected to reach £9 billion in 2021, less than a third of a record £28.4 billion in 2019 but up 59% on the 2020 figure of £5.7 billion.
A gradual increase in the value of inbound tourism in January to March is forecast, with a “step-change” heading into Easter and the spring if national restrictions are eased as expected, particularly from short-haul European markets.
These are forecast to recover quicker than long-haul, although still expected to be half of the 27.3 million seen in 2019.
VisitBritain is set to launch a campaign in early 2021 across its major European countries, including Germany and France, to drive future bookings highlighting messages of welcome and reassurance.
But the long-haul forecast is for just 3.3 million inbound visits to the UK in 2021, less than a quarter of the 13.6 million in 2019.
VisitBritain’s latest inbound consumer sentiment research showed that a third of international travellers surveyed state they are ‘in the mood’ for travelling abroad in 2021.
More than a quarter surveyed expect to have time and the means to travel abroad but not to book far in advance.
One in five had not chosen their destination for 2021, with a similar proportion having postponed plans from this year to next.
When looking at 2020 overall VisitBritain has forecast a decline of 76% in visits to 9.7 million and an 80% slump in spending to £5.7 billion. This would represent a loss versus a pre-Covid forecast of 32.3 million visits and £24.7 billion spending.
The government’s ‘test to release’ for international travel scheme being introduced this week has been welcomed as a boost for the industry in the run up to Christmas and beyond.
The government has also backed Global Travel Taskforce report recommendations, highlighting the importance of inbound tourism including a flagship overseas marketing campaign to promote the UK as an attractive and safe place to visit.
Tourism minister Nigel Huddleston said: “This forecast shows our tourism industry can look ahead to 2021 with renewed optimism for recovery.
“With the announcement of our ‘test to release’ international travel scheme, the backing of the Global Travel Taskforce report, and the Covid-19 vaccine rollout, we are committed to bringing the inbound tourism sector back to full strength.
“Let there be no doubt about this government’s support for tourism.”
VisitBritain director Patricia Yates added: “UK tourism businesses usually welcome tens of millions of overseas visitors each year with those visitors spending billions, supporting jobs and local economies right across the country.
“This year of course has been very different with international travel largely at a standstill and businesses having lost months of vital trading.
“Beginning to see signs of some green shoots is encouraging news for the industry and the economy as we look to 2021 and beyond.
“Tourism is also a fiercely competitive global industry and the key to success will be attracting visitors, those who can travel now, stimulating demand and bookings to drive the quickest return of international tourism spend.”