Research suggesting passenger testing on arrival would be twice as effective as 14-day quarantine at reducing Covid-19 community transmission has been welcomed by Virgin Atlantic.
New modelling by economics consultancy Oxera and healthcare firm Edge Health on the effectiveness of different airport testing regimes verses 14-day quarantine was released today (Wednesday) as the government’s Global Task Force on travel was poised to report to the prime minister.
The independent review was commissioned by a consortium of airlines, airports and industry organisations including Virgin Atlantic, British Airways owner IAG, Tui, Heathrow, Manchester Airports Group, Iata and Airlines UK.
A single test on arrival would reduce infectious days by 51% – more than double the current policy – when evidence of non-compliance is taken into account, according to the research.
An RT-PCR test three days pre-departure reduces the infectious days by 36%.
A ‘test and release’ regime on day three would be “significantly more effective” in minimising infectious days than the 14-day policy.
It would also be more effective than ‘test and release’ after five days (53%) or seven days (45%) currently under consideration by the Taskforce.
“Applying the latest assumptions, based on real-world evidence, the three days option balances between ensuring sufficient time for Covid-19 to become detectable and a swift enough result to inform the non-compliant infected individuals in the community of their infectious status, thus ensuring they go into isolation,” the study claimed.
Edge Health co-founder and director George Batchelor said: “The current policy of 14-day quarantine is the least effective strategy due to human behaviour, with returning travellers often failing to comply and risking community transmission.
“Our modelling finds a much more effective path in passenger testing, which if it’s applied as a ‘test and release’ regime, performs the best at reducing infectious days after 3 days quarantine. This balances the detectability of Covid-19 and new evidence of quarantine non-compliance.”
“Our work also modelled the effectiveness of on arrival and pre-departure testing schemes. While on arrival testing is twice as effective as quarantine, there remains a lack of real world data for pre-departure testing ti calibrate the outputs from the modelling.
“Pre-departure trials at scale are crucial to accumulate data and aid the best policy decision-making to reopen the skies safely.”
Oxera aviation practice head Michele Granatstein added: “For projected weekly incoming passenger volumes of 409,800 from the EU in August 2020, we estimate that just 45 infectious travellers, or 0.01% of air travellers, would be released into the local community.
“This is equivalent to one infectious person per 10,000 travellers, which can be compared to the 57 per 10,000 local community risk in England in September and October.
“Given that a number of passengers travelling from the EU to the UK do not have to adhere to the quarantine policy due to travel corridors, and given there is no testing scheme in place, it is likely that some infectious travellers are also being released into the community under the government’s current policy.”
Responding to te findings, Virgin Atlantic chief executive Shai Weiss said: “With the aviation industry all but grounded since March, it’s essential that the UK government’s Global Travel Taskforce acts swiftly to ensure that a robust passenger testing regime is in place in the UK by the start of December.
“The UK’s economic recovery relies on free-flowing trade and tourism. Only a co-ordinated testing regime can open up the skies, safely replace quarantine and boost consumer confidence.
“This new modelling provides yet more evidence that the government is significantly underestimating the efficacy of passenger testing.
“But it also shows that the current 14-day quarantine policy is fundamentally flawed in ignoring human behaviour and compliance with the rules. Half a million UK jobs depend on a fully functioning aviation industry, therefore it’s vital that policy decisions are based on the latest possible evidence.
“The ultimate goal must be to safely remove quarantine and it is encouraging that the transport decretary this week recognised effective testing as a way to do this.
“A real-world trial of pre-departure testing is the next step to generate much-needed data and the industry stands ready to deliver this, having already proven it can deliver rapid, point of care tests without diverting vital NHS resources.”