The winter will be a “write off” for travel, but summer 2021 will see a “snap back” in demand, according to Michael O’Leary, group chief executive of Ryanair.
O’Leary forecast “some level of normality” by next summer as he laid out Ryanair’s plans to return to 75%-80% of 2019 capacity.
But he dismissed Covid testing at airports and slammed governments across Europe for failures on mass testing, saying: “The hope now is a vaccine.”
Speaking at the World Travel Market virtual conference, O’Leary conceded governments had little choice but to order lockdowns at the start of the pandemic.
He said: “It’s easy to be critical of politicians. The first lockdown was probably inevitable. They had no choice with the initial response.
“What is disturbing is how governments used the lockdown. It should have been used to put in place mass testing. Every European government should have had capacity for mass testing.
“[But] nothing was put in place for the winter. They have not fixed mass testing, so the hope now is a vaccine.”
Noting the recent announcement by pharmaceutical firm Pfizer that a Covid vaccine has proved 90% effective in trials, O’Leary said: “Pfizer’s is only one vaccine. There is going to be a wave of vaccines coming.
“It’s reasonable to think those most at risk will be vaccinated by the end of Q1 [next year]. There is a real sense of optimism that we’ll get a vaccine to high-risk groups.”
He said: “Then it’s reasonable to think summer 2021 will get back to some level of normality. I see no reason why Ryanair shouldn’t get back to 75%-80% of 2019 capacity.
“This winter is a write off. November is always awful. The real issue is can we rescue some level of traffic for Christmas. Then it’s about Easter.”
However, O’Leary insisted: “Airport testing is a complete waste of time. What do you do when you get positive tests at an airport?
“Testing should not be at airports. People should be coming to the airport with a negative test. Then we can go back to short-haul flying with reasonable confidence. Long haul will take longer.”
He added: “PCR testing should be widely available, but at a cost of £120 to £150 a test it’s prohibitive.”
O’Leary argued: “I’ve heard lots of rubbish that it will be 2050 before the world recovers. Volumes will come back by 2022-23 because airlines, led by Ryanair, will discount.
“The volume recovery will be quite strong, particularly in markets where governments don’t raise airport charges. [But] it will take three to four years for pricing to recover to 2019 levels.”