Will 'peak oil' leave travel agents high and dry?
March 19, 2008
The Tracking Tourism Blog has a provocative post about tourism after 'peak oil' (i.e. when global resources are no longer sufficient to meet demand).
The party could soon be over and Peak Oil could start to radically upset our current notions of travel and tourism. As costs rise, the world will become smaller again - although there will nevertheless still be opportunities.
It's not a comfortable thought. We would, as TT points out, be forced to travel more locally. Where might this leave agents?
There is certainly potential for earning commission in the domestic market, but if overall choice dwindles and the product itself becomes more familiar, what will the role of the trade be?
You might see a difference in kind, where agents focus on organisation and perform a concierge-type function. Or you might see a difference in scale, where the role remains the same but the shrinking market can sustain fewer jobs.
Or both?
Answers on a postcard in the comments section please...
Nathan Midgley, web producer
Nathan Midgley
Martin Couzins
Comments (2)
That's an interesting point about how it would affect the agents and my guess would be that it would not simply mean turning back the clocks to the situation we had, say, in the 1960s. I say this primarily because things like the internet are not going to be uninvented (even if PCs rise in price)so I don't think we will see a return to agents being the sole privileged.
If it becomes more economical to travel in groups, then the agent will still have a very important role to play - it's bad enough planning a break for a large family but 30 people?! Forget about it! I'd rather leave it to someone else.
Incidentally, that's a great link you've got about how some agents are making a success of the market and it seems that its not just something confined to an older demographic.
Posted by Stephen Budd | March 19, 2008 2:01 PM
Posted on March 19, 2008 14:01
That's a good point about groups, Stephen. Ed Robertson's analysis shows how the UK market provides good business for agents.
It is an odd thought that agents could be more knowledgeable about destinations outside of the UK though. Less oil = need for more UK knowledge.
Posted by Martin Couzins | March 19, 2008 2:30 PM
Posted on March 19, 2008 14:30