The Greek financial crisis and Tunisian beach terror attack could cost Tui Group between £30 million and £40 million.
The Morgan Stanley estimate came ahead of Europe’s largest travel group reporting third quarter financial results next week.
Rival Thomas Cook confirmed last week that it is taking a £25 million hit as a result of the financial turmoil in Greece and the Sousse beach atrocity.
While Thomas Cook is the biggest operator to Tunisia, none of its holidaymakers was among the dead or injured.
However, 33 of the fatalities, including all 30 Britons, were travelling with Tui, so analysts are predicting a slightly bigger financial impact on the Thomson and First Choice operator.
Underlying earnings are still tipped to grow by 8% to €177 million on the back of strong trading in cruising and a positive currency impact, the Times reported.
Morgan Stanley said: “With the Foreign and Commonwealth Office issuing a travel ban for Tunisia, Tui will likely face considerable costs from customer repatriations, rescheduling its flights, and losing margin from customers who chose a refund over an alternative holidays.
“Thomas Cook quantified its impact as £20 million, plus £5 million from the crisis in Greece.
“Tui has previously said that it provides £30-40 million per annum for ‘unforeseen’ events, which suggests it may be able to include its costs within its guidance.
“It is too late in the season for clients to cancel their holidays to Greece without losing a large chunk of what they have paid, and anyway news sources suggest positive booking trends in Greece.”
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