The second wave of Covid-19, combined with quarantine rules, means that aviation’s recovery has stalled, according to the International Air Transport Association (Iata).
It said that total demand (measured in revenue passenger kilometres) in September was 72.8% below September 2019 levels.
This was only slightly better than the 75.2% year-to-year decline recorded in August.
Capacity was down 63% year-on-year and load factors fell 21.8 percentage points to 60.1%.
International passenger demand in September plunged 88.8% compared to September 2019 – largely unchanged from the 88.5% decline recorded in August.
International capacity plummeted 78.9%, and load factor withered 38.2 percentage points to 43.5%.
Alexandre de Juniac, Iata’s director general and chief executive, said: “We have hit a wall in the industry’s recovery.
“A resurgence in Covid-19 outbreaks – particularly in Europe and the US – combined with governments’ reliance on the blunt instrument of quarantine in the absence of globally aligned testing regimes, has halted momentum toward re-opening borders to travel.
“Although domestic markets are doing better, this is primarily owing to improvements in China and Russia.
“And domestic traffic represents just a bit more than a third of total traffic, so it is not enough to sustain a general recovery.”
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European carriers’ September demand collapsed 82.5% year-on-year, which was a setback compared to an 80.5% decline in August.
Europe was the only region to see a deterioration in traffic compared to August, because of renewed infections that led to a wave of border closings.
Capacity contracted 70.7% and load factor fell by 35.1 percentage points to 51.8%.
Juniac added: “Last week we provided analysis showing that the airline industry cannot slash costs fast enough to compensate for the collapse in passenger demand brought about by Covid-19 and government border closures and quarantines.
“Some 4.8 million aviation-sector jobs are imperiled, as are a total of 46 million people in the broader economy whose jobs are supported by aviation.
“To avoid this economic catastrophe, governments need to align on testing as a way to open borders and enable travel without quarantine; and provide further relief measures to sustain the industry through the dark winter ahead.
“A broader economic recovery is only possible through the connectivity provided by aviation.”