Analysts’ forward booking data “confirms” so-called ‘Trump Slump’

Analysts’ forward booking data “confirms” so-called ‘Trump Slump’

The ‘Trump Slump’ predicted when the US president called for a travel ban on people entering the US from several mainly-Muslim countries has been “confirmed”, according to analysts.

International air arrivals in the United States have fallen consistently since Donald Trump’s ban, findings from ForwardKeys, which predicts future global travel patterns by analysing more than 17 million booking transactions a day, suggest.

The period of decline coincides with a strengthening US dollar, making America a more expensive destination.

Since January 27 this year, when the first controversial travel ban was introduced, there has been an overall decline of 1.4% compared to the same period last year, according to ForwardKeys’ data.

The timeline reveals a correlation between the imposition of the first travel ban and the start of a decline in travel to the USA, the analysts say.

Meanwhile, international arrivals in the rest of the world increased by 4.6% overall, climbing consistently over the same period.

The decline in travel to the United States is from around the world – Europe, Asia Pacific and the Middle East.
Only travel from elsewhere in the Americas, and Africa, which has a 2.1% market share of travel to the USA, has shown growth.

Europe – with a 39.4% market share – slumped by 2.3% over the year to the end of September. Asia Pacific – with a 23% market share – was down 3.8%.

ForwardKeys co-founder and CEO Olivier Jager said: “Our latest detailed findings confirm what our data has been predicting since the first travel ban. There has been a Trump Slump and the strong dollar has compounded it.

“This must be worrying for the US economy – travel is a huge earner for the United States and relative to the rest of the world, its tourism exports are losing ground.

“Whilst disappointed for the USA by the latest travel data, we are relieved that the quality of our analysis last April, which was heavily questioned at the time, has been vindicated.”


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