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The UK economy is unlikely to go into a recession, a leading strategist at Barclays Capital said at the annual Barclays Travel Forum last week.

Barclays Capital director Paul Robinson said he believed long-term growth would slow but the economy would not go into negative growth.

"Our view is we are not going into recession," he said.

He also predicted that more people would come to the UK from Europe on  holiday because of the pound/euro exchange rate,. Although he said it was unlikely the exchange rate would get back to the ­favourable levels the UK had seen in previous years.

Consumer confidence is already affected by the current economic situation. He said that the increase in oil prices,  falling house prices and the situation with the banking industry and especially Northern Rock has dented consumer confidence.

"This is likely to keep falling and this is going to restrict consumer spending," said Robinson.

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