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PACKAGE holiday bookings through travel agents are forecast to drop by 4% next year, following a drop of 6% this summer.

Traditional packages sold through the multiples have dropped to their lowest since 1993 at 52% while web bookings look set to rise to 13% of all bookings next year.

According to the 27th annual travel report by tourism professor Allan Beaver, overall leisure trips will continue to increase, so agents can continue to retain business if they tailor their offering to a changing market.

“A classic agency just handling package holidays will see its market falling and falling,” warned Beaver.

He added: “Inclusive tour numbers will fall, but overall leisure trips abroad will continue to rise significantly.”

Agents can tackle falling market share through dynamic packaging, enabling them to offer consumers holidays where, when and for how long they want them.

Independents should also ensure they offer a web distribution channel, he said.

Overall, consumers still value booking through an agent but retailers need to establish themselves as experts, he said.

Meanwhile, beach hotel package holidays overtook the proportion of self-catering products by a ratio of 52:48 this summer. Charter flight load factors were also their lowest since 1978 at 92.2%.

The number of travel agents in 2004 dropped by around 4.7% to 8,173

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